In September this year, the consumer sentiment index remained at the same level as the previous month at -4.7. The persistent average score of -5 since May may indicate a lasting stabilization. These are the findings from the latest Consumer Sentiment Barometer developed by GfK– An NIQ Company.
The GfK Consumer Sentiment Barometer, an overall index illustrating the current mood of Poles in regard to consumer attitudes, in September 2023 amounted to -4.7, which signifies a decline of 0.2 units compared to the previous month.
In September, the level of consumer sentiment in the European Union also fell: the EU average was -18.7 compared to -17 in August 2023.
According to GfK – An NIQ Company’s surveys, in September 2023, respondents rated their current financial situation similarly to the previous month. This result continues to be negative, with a slight increase of 0.1 units (-8.5 versus -8.6 in August 2023). Poles see their future in slightly brighter colors – however, this index remains negative (-2.7 compared to -3.7 in August 2023).
At the same time, almost every third Pole expects the coming months to bring an increase in unemployment. Accordingly, concerns about the labour market decreased by 5.6 pp compared to August 2023. Consumer sentiment is also significantly influenced by increasing prices from month to month – 85.2% of Poles feel their increase compared to September 2022. Three out of four respondents also believe that goods and services will continue to become more expensive, with over 35.2% thinking that inflation, contrary to the Monetary Policy Council’s announcements, will maintain double-digit dynamics.
“The summer period has undoubtedly had a positive impact on consumer sentiment. Although the index consistently remains negative, and Poles continue to have numerous concerns, in recent months they have been looking at their economic future with greater calm. After almost six months of this trend, we can cautiously speak of some stabilization. How long will it last? Of course, the following months will be key, especially considering economic and political events. But for now, concerns about the upcoming elections are balanced by the sunny weather outside,” says Barbara Lewicka, Senior Director Marketing & Consumer Intelligence at GfK – An NIQ Company.
In September 2023, similar to the previous month, positive consumer moods were present in two out of six age groups identified by GfK – An NIQ Company. Among young people aged 15 to 22, the result was 10.2 and increased by 2.2 units. In the remaining twenty-somethings, the index was 7.8, having fallen by 9.5 pp. Over the past few months, the results in this group have been changing very dynamically – especially considering the August jump of 15.4 units and the low score in July (1.8), which was the result of a decline in consumer sentiment. On the opposite pole were individuals in their fifties: this group achieved a score of -17.8. The index decreased by nearly 2 units compared to August and more than triple compared to July 2023. Respondents of this age also highlight the largest regression in the quality of life over the last 12 months. All other age groups share the bad moods, but only in the case of thirty-year-olds did the index decrease (-8.3 compared to -1.9 in August 2023).
A large disproportion appears when comparing different levels of education: the best moods were noted by GfK – An NIQ Company among consumers with primary education, who are back in the positive (7.5 compared to 4 in August 2023), while the worst among those with higher education (-12 compared to -7 in August 2023).
In September 2023, the key components of the Consumer Sentiment Barometer shaped up as follows:
Information about the research
The survey was conducted between the 4th and 9th of August 2023 as part of a multi-topic omnibus study e-Bus, using the CAWI method(desktop-assisted personal interviews with respondents using a survey posted on the internet) on a quota-based, subject-representative, nationwide sample of n = 1000 people. The structure of respondents was chosen to reflect the distribution of selected socio-demographic parameters in the general population.
The barometer can take values from -100 to +100 and it is a balance between positive and negative opinions. A positive value of the barometer indicates that in a given wave of research, the number of optimistically inclined consumers outweighs the number of pessimistically inclined ones. A negative barometer value means a reversal of this proportion.
The barometer is an aggregated indicator commissioned by the European Commission, calculated since 1985. Currently, the index includes 27 countries. Data for Poland comes from GfK’s study co-funded by the European Commission.
