According to the latest report by AXI IMMO, the largest Polish commercial real estate advisory firm, titled “Office Market in Warsaw. Q1 2026”, the Warsaw office market recorded a decline in occupier activity in the first quarter of 2026, while the availability of office space in central locations remained limited, putting upward pressure on rents.
According to AXI IMMO experts, gross office take-up in Warsaw reached 130,000 sq m in Q1 2026, representing a 9% year-on-year decrease. The strongest occupier activity was recorded in central zones, including the Central Business District (CBD). At the same time, no lease transactions exceeding 10,000 sq m were concluded during the first three months of the year, confirming a cautious approach by companies when making long-term location decisions. The IT sector accounted for the largest share of take-up (20%), followed by business services (13%) and the financial sector (12%).
Emilia Trofimiuk, Research Manager, Market Research and Analysis Department, AXI IMMO, comments: “The year-on-year decline in occupier activity is visible in both gross and net take-up; however, this does not indicate a structural weakening of the market. The current result is largely due to the absence of large transactions and the continued high share of lease renewals and renegotiations.”
Limited New Supply and Historically Low Development Activity
At the end of Q1 2026, Warsaw’s total modern office stock stood at approximately 6.28 million sq m. During the quarter, only around 40,000 sq m of new office space was delivered, primarily in central locations.
New completions included Studio A (24,000 sq m) developed by Skanska, Vena (15,400 sq m) delivered by Polski Holding Nieruchomości, and the refurbished office building at 26A Przemysłowa Street in Solec (3,500 sq m), which returned to the market following comprehensive modernisation. At the same time, older and technically inefficient office buildings are being withdrawn from the market, which means that total supply remains broadly stable.
Office development activity remains extremely limited. At the end of Q1 2026, only 120,000 sq m of office space was under construction, representing a 46% year-on-year decline. The largest ongoing project is Afi Tower (50,000 sq m), part of the mixed-use Towarowa 22 development, scheduled for completion in 2028. No new office projects were launched in Warsaw during the first quarter of 2026.
Filip Kowalski, Associate Director, Office Agency, AXI IMMO, explains: “Such low development activity means that the availability of modern office space, particularly in central Warsaw, will remain limited in the coming years. This factor is already influencing landlords’ rental expectations.”
Market Polarisation and Growing Rental Pressure
At the end of March 2026, the average vacancy rate in Warsaw stood at 9.5%, down 1.0 percentage point year-on-year. However, differences between central and non-central locations remain pronounced. Vacancy in central zones amounted to just 6.5%, compared with 12.2% outside the city centre.
Limited availability in the most attractive office schemes continues to drive rental growth. Asking rents in Warsaw currently range from EUR 10.00 to EUR 28.00 per sq m per month, depending on location and building standard. In prestigious projects located in Warsaw’s business centre, rents start at approximately EUR 19.00 per sq m per month and may exceed EUR 30.00 per sq m per month on upper floors.
Emilia Trofimiuk, AXI IMMO, adds: “Warsaw is increasingly becoming a two-speed office market. In central locations, the supply of high-quality, prestigious office space is strengthening, with rents remaining high and expected to rise further. Outside the city centre, competition will be driven primarily by price, service charges and the quality of modernisation.”
Outlook for the Coming Quarters
Despite the weaker start to the year, take-up forecasts for the coming quarters of 2026 remain moderately optimistic. AXI IMMO experts assume that total office take-up on an annual basis may be comparable to, or even higher than, the level recorded in 2025, driven primarily by ongoing negotiations and the expected finalisation of lease agreements.
