The Monetary Policy Council (RPP) will begin its two-day session today. There is a lot of uncertainty about the decision of the Monetary Policy Council regarding the level of interest rates in Poland, which will be announced tomorrow. Out of 21 institutions surveyed by “Parkiet”, 3 expect that the rates will remain unchanged at 6%, 11 anticipate a reduction by 25 bp, 6 predict a drop of half a percentage point and one expects a further reduction of 0.75%. In September, the RPP surprised the market by reducing the reference interest rate by ¾ percent points.
The USD/PLN exchange rate hovered near its half-year highs (+0.07% around 8:45). The exchange rate of the Polish currency to the euro also changed little today morning (+0.01%).
The EUR/USD exchange rate today fell to its lowest level since last December. The USD exchange rate against the Japanese yen lurked just below the level of 150 JPY, on the one hand wanting to continue the increase that has been ongoing since January, and on the other hand fearing intervention by the Central Bank of Japan like the one that happened last October when the USD/JPY rate previously exceeded 150 JPY. Today, the USD exchange rate against the Turkish lira reached its historic peak.
The Bitcoin exchange rate against the U.S. dollar saw an aggressive surge yesterday reaching its highest level in 1.5 months (around 28500 USD), but this “bullish” attack was repelled and the rate ended the day slightly below the level of 27500 USD. Today around 8:45, the BTC/USD rate tried to rise again (+0.56%).
New cyclical highs were achieved today by the yields on 10-year government bonds in Japan, Australia, and New Zealand. The yield on 10-year U.S. government bonds remained close to its recent 16-year records (4.699% today around 9:05). The yield on 10-year Polish government bonds, which last week reached its highest level in 3 months, remained below the level of 5.9% this morning.
There was no dominant trend yesterday on Wall Street (S&P 500 +0.01%, DJIA -0.22%, Nasdaq 100 +0.83%). During Monday’s session, the Dow Jones industrial average hit its lowest level since the beginning of June this year. Around 9:15 our time, S& P 500 futures showed minimal change (-0.02%).
The French CAC 40 reached its lowest level since last March (-0.41% around 9:00). The German DAX, which last week reached its lowest level since last March, was wavering (-0.45%).
On the Warsaw Stock Exchange, the WIG 20 index fell this morning to its lowest level since last April (-0.77% around 9:20). Among the components of sWIG-80, Datawalk and Captor Therapeutics shares hit their new cyclical lows today.
The price of CBOT wheat contracts, which hit its lowest level in 3 years on Friday, rebounded yesterday and this morning. The price of CBOT soybean contracts, which yesterday hit its lowest level since December 2021 but ended the day with a slight increase, fell again this morning (-0.55% around 8:55). Oil futures prices reached their lowest level in 3 weeks today (WTI –0.2%, Brent -0.33% around 8:55).
-Wojciech Białek, OANDA TMS Brokers
