• For the second time in a row, the National Bank of Poland (NBP) decided to lower interest rates, this time by only 25 basis points (primary rate 5.75%). The rationale for the rate reduction was the notable deceleration of consumer inflation in September (8.2% year-on-year, compared to 10.1% year-on-year in August). The previous cut of 75 basis points resulted in a sharp depreciation of the zloty and the current slowing down of monetary policy easing might be linked to concerns about further weakening of the Polish currency (though the NBP’s governor, A. Glapinski, stated in a press conference that the zloty remains a strong and steady currency and he does not share such fears). The drop in the PMI activity in the Polish manufacturing sector slowed in September, largely due to a deceleration of the decline in new orders.
• Although the final PMI indicator in the German manufacturing sector was not satisfying (activity decreased for the fifteenth consecutive month, orders fell, expectations considerably worsened), the final data for German services positively surprised. The PMI index rose above the 50-point threshold. Meanwhile, the ISM Index in the US manufacturing sector significantly outperformed expectations (its best result since November 2022). However, the September ADP report from the US was disappointing, reporting only 89,000 new jobs (market estimates were at 153,000).
• The euro depreciated against the dollar to a level of 1.045 USD/EUR, recouped some of its losses and ended up at a level of 1.055 USD/EUR (Friday morning). The zloty/euro exchange rate fluctuated in the range of 4.59-4.65 PLN/EUR. The PLN/USD currency pair was primarily moving in the range of 4.36-4.44.
AKCENTA CZ a.s.
