The third quarter in the housing market was characterized by a continuous decline in available listings, accompanied by a rise in demand. The result? Most provincial cities saw an increase in average listing prices, irrespective of the size of the dwelling. This was a key finding from the quarterly price analysis of the secondary market by Nieruchomosci-online.pl.
“In the third quarter, one of the main issues in the housing market was the further decline in listings. When considering all secondary market property listings posted on Nieruchomosci-online.pl, there was a 14% drop quarter-on-quarter. Compared to the beginning of the year, listings are down by about 20%. Smaller apartments and reasonably priced offers disappear almost instantly. Unfortunately, in many local markets, new listings are rare,” says Rafał Bieńkowski of Nieruchomosci-online.pl.
Why does the secondary market supply keep declining? It’s not just due to increased demand, evident since mid-year. Another significant reason is the low supply in the primary market, as companies hold off on new investments. Consequently, many individuals delay selling older construction properties because they can’t find anything new to purchase from developers.
Prices didn’t just rise because of the “Safe Mortgage 2%” program
In recent months, a growing demand has collided with a dwindling supply. Several factors contributed to the vibrant housing market in the third quarter. First was the “Safe Mortgage 2%” program, although agents report that it wasn’t popular in all local markets. Second was the relaxation of credit criteria and easier access to regular mortgages. The third was the realization of pent-up demand from the previous year. Many, seeing the rapid price increases that began earlier in the year after the announcement of the “Safe Mortgage 2%” program, were hesitant to delay their buying decisions any longer.
According to a survey by Nieruchomosci-online.pl, conducted after the third quarter among agents, over 80% of real estate agents noticed increased interest in properties. However, this did not always result in finalized transactions. In other words, the growing interest in the real estate market was most evident on listing websites. Comparing the third and second quarters, contact with advertisers through Nieruchomosci-online.pl increased by over 39%, reaching levels last seen in 2021 due to nearly zero interest rates.
“In the third quarter, alongside the increased activity of seekers, the average listing prices of secondary market apartments also rose. Many sellers raised their expectations, believing they would attract beneficiaries of the ‘Safe Mortgage 2%’. However, it can’t be said that higher prices were solely the result of increased demand spurred by the program. A key factor was the shrinking supply. Sellers noticed a lack of listings on the market, which also prompted them to raise prices. Some based their valuations on speculation that properties would appreciate, fueling a price spiral. We must also remember another crucial factor: cheaper apartments disappear from the market faster, leaving more expensive ones, which also drives up the average listing price,” explains Rafał Bieńkowski.
A studio apartment in Warsaw now approaches PLN 17,000 per sq. meter
In the third quarter, sellers’ expectations rose in most provincial cities, regardless of apartment size.
The quarterly analysis by Nieruchomosci-online.pl typically covers secondary market apartments divided by the number of rooms. The average listing price for studio apartments increased in 15 out of 18 provincial cities, though the rate of change varied between 1 to 9% quarter-on-quarter. Expectations rose the most in Kielce (9%), Wrocław (8.3%), Toruń (7.6%), and Warsaw (6.8%). Notably, the average price for a one-room apartment in the capital is nearing PLN 17,000 per sq. meter. The third quarter saw a decrease in average listing prices in three provincial cities: Katowice, Olsztyn, and Gorzów Wielkopolski.
For two-bedroom apartments, price increases ranged from 4 to 9% quarter-on-quarter in 14 regional capitals. The most significant hikes in “two-room” average listing prices occurred in the largest cities: Warsaw (9.1%), Kraków (8.7%), and Wrocław (7.6%). In the third quarter, only Katowice and Gorzów Wielkopolski bucked the upward trend (both with decreases), while Szczecin and Zielona Góra saw stabilized prices.
Sellers’ rising expectations also predominated for three-bedroom apartments. The largest increases in average listing prices were in Toruń (9.9%), Kraków (9.2%), and Poznań (8.7%). In other cities, the increase was usually between 2-4% quarter-on-quarter. Three cities – Gdańsk, Olsztyn, and Gorzów Wielkopolski – saw little to no change from the second quarter. Interestingly, Gorzów Wielkopolski was the only provincial city not to register an increase in average listing prices for any second-hand apartment size in the third quarter.
