Over the past week, the prices of Natural 95 and Diesel kept falling. The cost of Natural 95 dropped by 4 grosz per liter, while Diesel saw a reduction of 3 grosz per liter.
Between February 21 and February 28, 2025, the price of oil declined by $1.5 per barrel. The following Monday, it dropped by an additional $1.2 per barrel, marking a three-month low.
Oil prices took a sharp dive after OPEC+ officially confirmed its plan to ramp up production, marking the first such increase since 2022. According to the OPEC+ statement, output will gradually rise by about 138,000 barrels per day starting in April, though this increase could be paused or reversed depending on market conditions. This flexibility is intended to help the alliance maintain oil market stability. The decision comes as U.S. President Donald Trump renews his calls for lower oil prices, pressing Saudi Arabia and its allies to boost output. Additionally, Trump’s “maximum pressure” policy on Iranian exports could create an opportunity for other OPEC+ members to step in and fill the gap.
OPEC+’s move suggests the alliance is feeling the strain of underproduction and losing market share to the United States, the highest-cost producer. Joe DeLaura, a former trader and global energy strategist at Rabobank, notes that this decision reflects a response to a global supply surplus, which the International Energy Agency (IEA) estimates at 450,000 barrels per day—even with current production limits in place. Rival supplies from the U.S., Brazil, Canada, and Guyana are outpacing demand growth, putting OPEC+ in a challenging position. Adding to the volatility are uncertainties tied to U.S. sanctions on Russia, Iran, and Venezuela, as well as the looming threat of a global tariff war. OPEC+’s plan to phase out 2.2 million barrels per day of cuts by September 2026 may thus serve as a cautious test of market reaction rather than a definitive shift in policy.
In the coming week, fuel prices are expected to continue slight fluctuation by no more than 2-3 grosze per liter in either direction again.
Considering the possible fluctuations in fuel prices, consistent refueling remains an essential strategy for logistics companies to control costs. A structured approach to fuel resupply enables them to more effectively handle short-term market price variations.
Marcin Wawrzkiewicz, Country Manager Malcom Finance
