New home sales were expected to increase this year, but so far that forecast has been borne out only in Warsaw. Demand has weakened in the other major metropolitan markets. At the same time, buyers do not need to fear a broad increase in prices, as the large supply of available apartments is keeping the market in check in many cities.
“The sales results reported by developers confirm our concerns that, after the rebound in demand seen in March, the following months would be somewhat weaker,” says Marek Wielgo, an expert at RynekPierwotny.pl.
According to Wielgo, following the outbreak of the conflict in the Middle East, many prospective buyers moved quickly to purchase apartments out of concern that mortgage interest rates might rise. And, in fact, as data from Rankomat.pl show, loans with temporarily fixed interest rates have started to become more expensive. May was also the third consecutive month of declining mortgage affordability.
Mortgages Are Cooling Buyer Sentiment Again
Mortgage affordability remains higher than it was a year ago, but some prospective buyers have clearly decided to postpone their purchase decisions.
In May, Warsaw and the Tri-City were the only metropolitan areas where developers increased apartment sales. In Warsaw, sales rose from 1,442 to 1,488 units, an increase of around 3% month on month. In the Tri-City, sales increased from 544 to 566 apartments, or 4% month on month. However, only in the capital was the sales result clearly above the average monthly level recorded in 2025.
The situation in other large cities was less encouraging. In Kraków, sales fell from 670 to 579 apartments, down 14%. In Wrocław, they declined from 574 to 561 units, or 2%. In Poznań, sales dropped from 458 to 422 apartments, down 8%. In the Górnośląsko-Zagłębiowska Metropolis, sales fell sharply from 462 to 324 units, a decline of 30%.
Even where changes were relatively modest, sales remained close to, or below, last year’s average monthly level.
Developers Slow Investment Activity Outside the Capital
Weaker demand is also visible in developers’ activity. In most metropolitan areas, the number of apartments launched for sale in May was higher than in April, but it remained below or close to the average monthly level recorded in 2025.
In Kraków, only 227 apartments were added to the market in May, around 65% fewer than the average monthly number in 2025. In Wrocław, developers launched 293 units, a result approximately 69% below the average level.
Warsaw once again stood out. Developers in the capital introduced more than twice as many apartments to the market in May as in April, with 1,954 units compared with 919. Moreover, Warsaw is the only market where this year’s average monthly supply remains higher than last year’s level. Developers in the capital are both increasing sales and maintaining strong investment activity.
Apartments Are Not in Short Supply
Despite the reduction in new project launches, the supply of apartments remains very high. In May, the number of available units increased further in most metropolitan areas.
In Warsaw, supply rose from 16,600 to 17,300 apartments, up 4%. In the Tri-City and Kraków, the offer stood at around 11,700 units. In Wrocław, it was approximately 11,200 apartments, while Łódź had around 10,300 units available. Poznań recorded an offer of roughly 8,900 apartments, and the cities of the Górnośląsko-Zagłębiowska Metropolis had around 7,900 units on the market.
The only declines were recorded in Kraków and Wrocław, where supply fell by around 2% in each case. In practice, this means that apartment availability remains high, helping to limit price growth.
A Period of Price Stability
Warsaw continues to attract the most attention. Since the beginning of 2026, the average price per square metre in the capital has risen from just under PLN 18,500 to nearly PLN 20,000, an increase of around 8%. In May, however, there was a slight correction, with the average falling by approximately PLN 100 to PLN 19,900 per square metre.
This was not the result of price cuts in developers’ price lists, but rather a change in the structure of available supply.
For the second consecutive month, prices also remained stable in Kraków. The Tri-City recorded its fourth straight month of stability, with average prices rising only marginally to PLN 17,200 and PLN 17,800 per square metre respectively.
In Poznań, following earlier modest increases, May brought a slight correction to PLN 14,200 per square metre, around PLN 100 less than a month earlier.
In Łódź, the average price has remained at around PLN 11,600 per square metre and has changed very little since the beginning of the year. In the cities of the Górnośląsko-Zagłębiowska Metropolis, the average stands at around PLN 11,200 per square metre, with periods of stability alternating with minor declines.
Wrocław was the exception. The average price increased by around 1% in May, from PLN 15,300 to PLN 15,400 per square metre, as a large number of apartments entered the market at an average price of approximately PLN 16,700 per square metre.
On an annual basis, the differences between markets are already substantial. In Warsaw, the average price per square metre is around 10% higher than a year earlier. In the Tri-City and Poznań, the increase is approximately 5–6%. In Wrocław, prices are around 4% higher, while in Kraków they have risen by roughly 3%.
In Łódź, prices are only around 1% higher than in May 2025. In the cities of the Górnośląsko-Zagłębiowska Metropolis, they remain lower by a similar margin.
What Do Apartments Really Cost?
Marek Wielgo points out that “typical” apartment prices are noticeably lower than the average, with the difference mainly driven by the most expensive developments. A calmer and more reliable reference point is the median, or the price at the middle of the market range.
In May, the median price per square metre stood at PLN 17,700 in Warsaw, PLN 17,200 in the Tri-City, PLN 16,000 in Kraków, PLN 14,400 in Wrocław, PLN 13,300 in Poznań, PLN 11,400 in Łódź and “only” PLN 10,900 in the cities of the Górnośląsko-Zagłębiowska Metropolis.
“The more top-tier apartments there are in a given market, the wider the gap between the average and median price. It is no coincidence that Warsaw leads in this respect,” Wielgo comments.
The median is generally more stable than the average price per square metre. This year, the Tri-City has been the exception.
For potential buyers, however, it matters not only that they can choose from a larger number of offers. In most metropolitan areas, the number of apartments in the more affordable segment has declined this year.
For the purposes of this comparison, the popular segment includes apartments priced below PLN 17,000 per square metre in Warsaw, Kraków and the Tri-City; below PLN 14,000 in Wrocław and Poznań; and below PLN 11,000 in Łódź and the cities of the Górnośląsko-Zagłębiowska Metropolis.
In Warsaw, buyers had around 7,200 apartments available in May priced at up to PLN 17,000 per square metre, 18% fewer than in January. In Kraków, the supply of such apartments shrank by 7% to 7,100 units. In the Tri-City, it increased by 2%, although it remained the smallest of the major markets, at 4,100 apartments.
In Warsaw, Łódź and the Górnośląsko-Zagłębiowska Metropolis, the number of apartments in the popular segment increased in May. However, only in the latter metropolitan area was the number higher than at the beginning of the year. This helps explain the decline in both the median and average asking price per square metre among apartments offered by developers.
