Producer prices in Poland rose by 2.4% year on year in May 2026, confirming the end of a nearly two-year period of industrial deflation. While prices remained unchanged from April on a monthly basis, the upward trend in PPI suggests that cost pressure is beginning to rebuild across the economy. Mining and manufacturing recorded the strongest increases, while lower energy prices continued to partly offset the broader rise.
Producer deflation ends. Industrial prices rise 2.4% after two years of declines
In May 2026, prices of sold industrial output were 2.4% higher than a year earlier — the third consecutive month of growth following nearly two years of producer deflation. On a monthly basis, prices remained unchanged from April, but the reversal in annual dynamics signals a return of cost pressures to the economy.
The producer price index (PPI) is one of the most important gauges of cost pressure in the economy. It usually precedes changes in consumer prices and directly affects corporate margins. The latest data from Statistics Poland point to a clear reversal: after uninterrupted declines since July 2023, producer prices have been rising year on year again since March 2026.
Annual dynamics reverse: from deflation to inflation
As recently as January 2026, producer prices were 2.6% lower than a year earlier. In March, annual dynamics moved above zero, reaching 1.2%, before rising to 2.1% in April and 2.4% in May. This marks the fastest growth in producer prices since the start of the current deflationary cycle.
The turning point came in March 2026, when prices jumped by as much as 3.0% month on month — the strongest increase in the entire period presented. This one-off acceleration pushed annual dynamics into positive territory. Monthly growth then slowed: prices increased by 0.6% in April and remained unchanged in May.
Mining pushes prices higher, energy pulls them lower
May’s increase was driven primarily by mining and quarrying, where prices were 4.3% higher than a year earlier. However, the sector showed significant differences: prices in metal ore mining rose by as much as 11.5% year on year, while prices in hard coal and lignite mining fell by 3.4%. Price growth was also recorded in manufacturing, up 2.8%, and in water supply and waste management, up 1.3%.
The only section still recording negative annual dynamics was electricity, gas, steam and air-conditioning supply, where prices fell by 1.6%. This is important because energy prices had been the main factor pulling the headline index down in recent months. Their continuing decline is still partly cushioning pressure from other sectors.
| Section | May y/y | May m/m | Jan–May y/y |
|---|---|---|---|
| TOTAL industry | +2.4% | 0.0% | +0.2% |
| Mining and quarrying | +4.3% | +1.5% | +2.3% |
| Manufacturing | +2.8% | −0.2% | +0.3% |
| Water supply and waste management | +1.3% | +0.4% | +1.7% |
| Energy supply | −1.6% | +1.0% | −1.8% |
Broader context: prices remain 18% above 2021 levels
The reversal in annual dynamics does not mean producer prices are returning to their pre-inflation shock levels. Despite the deflationary episode of 2023–2025, industrial prices in May 2026 remained 18.2% above the 2021 average. After temporarily declining to around 13.6% in January, the cumulative index has risen again in recent months.
This pattern — a return to positive annual dynamics while the base price level remains elevated — means cost pressure is rebuilding from an already high starting point. For industrial companies, it is a signal that the period of falling production costs that characterised the past two years is beginning to close.
Business takeaway: A positive PPI reading is an early sign that cost pressures are rebuilding. After two years of producer deflation that supported margins, businesses need to prepare for rising prices of raw materials and intermediate goods — with energy remaining the key exception, as it was still cheaper year on year.
What this means
Key takeaways
- Producer deflation has ended. After nearly two years of declines, industrial prices rose year on year for the third consecutive month, reaching +2.4% in May.
- March was the turning point. A 3.0% month-on-month jump in March pushed annual dynamics into positive territory, although the pace slowed in the following months.
- Mining is driving the increase. Prices in mining rose by 4.3% year on year, while metal ore mining recorded an 11.5% increase — the main inflationary factor on the producer side.
- Energy prices were still falling. A 1.6% annual decline in energy prices partly offset pressure from other sectors, although the scale of this effect is decreasing.
- The overall price level remains high. Despite the deflationary episode, producer prices are still 18.2% above their 2021 level, meaning pressure is rebuilding from an elevated base.
For the wider economy, the key question will be whether the reversal in producer prices translates, with a delay, into consumer prices and further monetary-policy decisions. PPI traditionally leads CPI inflation, which makes its return to positive territory after two years of deflation a signal that managers and analysts will monitor closely in the coming months.
Preliminary data for May 2026; final data for April 2026. The producer price index for sold industrial output covers sections B–E under NACE Rev. 2 / PKD 2007. Source: Statistics Poland, “Producer Price Indices of Sold Industrial Output in May 2026”, Prices and Services Department. Own calculations based on Statistics Poland data.
