The demand for housing loans in September 2023 increased by 248.8% – according to the BIK Index for Housing Loan Demand (BIK Index – PKM). The value of the Index means that in September 2023, calculated per working day, banks and SKOK (an acronym for Credit Union in Poland) sent queries to BIK about housing loans for an amount 248.8% higher compared to September 2022.
A total of 36.59 thousand potential borrowers applied for a housing loan in September 2023 compared to 13.58 thousand a year earlier – this is an increase of 169.5%. However, compared to August 2023, the number of people applying for a housing loan fell by 5.9%.
The average value of the requested housing loan in September this year was PLN 417,360 and was 23.6% higher compared to September 2022. Compared to August 2023, it increased by 1.7%.
“Demand for housing loans is still very high. Potential borrowers applied for loans worth up to two and a half times more than a year ago in September. This means that the third historic highest level of the Demand Index. There are three reasons for such a high value of the Demand Index in September. The first reason is the higher number of people applying for a housing loan. It increased from 13.5 thousand in September last year to 36.6 thousand in September this year. This is, among other things, the effect of great interest in the housing loan as part of the “2% Loan” program. We estimate that about 60% among the people applying for a housing loan in August are people up to 45 years old, who did not have a housing loan before, applying for a loan up to PLN 600 thousand in a bank participating in the program. On the other hand, the increase in demand for housing loans is due to improved sentiment towards housing loans among potential borrowers who cannot formally be beneficiaries of the program due to formal reasons, but their credit capacity has increased. The ability to borrow is because of the real increase in wages, the decrease in the WIBOR rate both in response to a reduction in the reference rate by 0.75 percentage points and in anticipation of further interest rate cuts. Consequently, the availability of housing loans has increased, which has directly led to an increase in demand. When interpreting the Index reading, remember that relatively few people applied for a housing loan in September 2022, causing a low comparison base for this September. The statistical effect of a low base from September 2022 partially accounts for the current high reading of the BIK Demand Index. An important factor is also the increase in the average amount of the requested loan to a record value of PLN 417,360 – this is almost 1/4 higher value compared to September 2022. Such a high amount is due to both the rise in property prices and the fact that a large part of people who want to take advantage of the “2% Loan” program apply for amounts close to the upper level of the limit in this program (PLN 500 thousand for singles and PLN 600 thousand for married couples),” explains Prof. Waldemar Rogowski, Main Analyst of the BIK Group.
“Therefore, it is still worth monitoring the behavior of the two components of the Index, i.e., the number of people applying for a housing loan and the average amount of the requested loan. As far as this first element is concerned, the decisive one may be the level of interest in the “2% Loan” program. It’s worth noting that the largest number of people applied for a loan in July – an effect of cumulative interest, fewer customers applied in August, and even fewer in September. As for the second element, the average requested loan amount should continue to increase along with the increase in property prices,” concludes Prof. Waldemar Rogowski, Main Analyst of the BIK Group.
