In the next 17 years, nuclear power is expected to account for approximately one quarter of electric power production in Poland. Both the first nuclear power plant in Pomerania and the second one in Wielkopolska are gathering pace, with very high public support for these projects. Supporters of increasing nuclear power in the energy mix highlight not only its cost-effective energy and energy security, but also increased independence. Market expert, Adam Rajewski, argues: “Given our geographical conditions in Poland, it seems we are destined for nuclear.”
“Polish people currently have strong conviction towards nuclear, as indicated by surveys; it’s one of the highest levels of support worldwide, probably due to several reasons. One of them is undoubtedly the climate crisis and the necessity of transforming Poland’s energy sector, moving away from fossil fuels, particularly coal in our case. However, I think the full-scale invasion of Russia on Ukraine, after which we observed a significant increase in support, also has a strong link to this,” says Adam Rajewski, Vice President of the Nuclear.pl Foundation.
Poles’ attitude towards nuclear energy has been regularly surveyed by CBOS for over 35 years. During this time, significant mood shifts have been observed due to events both nationally and internationally. Shortly after the Chernobyl disaster, supporters made up only a third of those surveyed. Another third couldn’t take a stand on the issue.
From then until the end of the first decade of the 21st century, the support gradually increased until another disaster occurred – that of the Fukushima power plant due to an earthquake. 83% of those surveyed negatively towards nuclear implementation in Poland admitted that the crisis in Japan had diminished their confidence in this energy sector. From that moment on, the percentage of opponents was higher than supporters. In May 2021, the numbers were almost equal – 45% would oppose the implementation, and 39% supported it. Meanwhile, 16% had no opinion. The latest CBOS study, conducted in November 2022, showed some drastic changes. The number of supporters rose to 75%, while opponents diminished to 13%. Presentation conducted by the Ministry of Climate and Environment indicates even more significant support among Poles at 86%, with only 10% against. Over 71% of the respondents agreed to have such a power plant in the vicinity of their place of residence.
“Pursuant to the Polish Nuclear Power Program, from 2020 to 2040, blocks with a capacity of 6 to 9 GW based on large PWR reactors are to be built in Poland. The government then predicted that by 2045 the nuclear share in the energy mix would be about 20%. However, works are currently being conducted to update the entire “Poland’s Energy Policy until 2040”, which will also change the Polish Nuclear Energy Program. According to the assumptions presented in April by the Ministry of Climate and Environment, one of the scenarios suggests that by 2040 nuclear energy would be responsible for producing 23% of electric power, totaling 70% when combined with RES. The installed power in large and small reactors will be 7.8 GW, which will account for about 6% of the total capacity in the electrical power system. Updates will be conducted after the election.
The first large-scale nuclear block is set to start operating in 2033. It’s known that, apart from the Pomeranian investment of Polish Nuclear Power Plants in cooperation with the American Westinghouse which has already received the green light in the form of main decisions from the Ministry of Climate and Environment and the environmental decision of the General Director of Environmental Protection, there will also be another power plant in Wielkopolska. PGE and ZE PAK will build it in cooperation with Korean KHNP. On August 16, the companies submitted an application to the Ministry of Climate and Environment for the issuance of the principal decision. There are also several other projects planned, such as those by Orlen and KGHM, related to small SMR nuclear reactors.
“In some sense, there is no alternative for nuclear in the energy transformation, but it doesn’t mean that nuclear power plants should be set up chaotically in every country, in every place. This should be a subject for professional analysis related to the operation of energy systems, the costs of operation and integration of various types of sources, as switching from fossil fuels to something else involves numerous investments other than just building the power plants. However, in many systems, these nuclear power plants are needed for a rational solution to this problem. Otherwise, particularly as Europe, we will be more dependent on external gas supplies than needed,” says the expert from the Nuclear.pl Foundation.
The outbreak of war in Ukraine and the necessity of faster transition from natural gas entailed greater interest in nuclear energy, also in other EU countries. Even those that had previously awaited further development of the nuclear program or even planned to withdraw from it. Germany remained uncompromising in their decision to abandon nuclear, switching off their power plants in April and focusing on RES.
“More and more countries are convinced that they will have to invest in new generations of nuclear power plants. Countries that have recently changed their mind include the Netherlands and Sweden, which has ambitious plans to build a new generation of nuclear power plants, something that had long been completely contrary to the state policy,” reminds Adam Rajewski.
The challenge regarding further expansion of nuclear energy in Europe is to find new fuel suppliers. Uranium sources are partly in countries that are politically unstable or do not maintain friendly relations with Europe. A lot was said about this last summer when a coup occurred in Niger, leading to the suspension of uranium exports to France, which relies heavily on nuclear power.
“The largest uranium deposits in the world are in politically stable countries that are friendly with Europe, or even militarily allied with most European countries. These countries – Australia and Canada – would not present import issues. A greater challenge is not as much the purchase of uranium, but its later enrichment. Here, although Europe possesses its own capabilities, it has also, for years, made use of Russian capacities. Now, however, for obvious reasons – common sense ones – we need to get rid of this dependence,” asserts the nuclear power expert.
“We also need to remember that nuclear fuel offers a unique chance to store energy reserves for many years, as the Czech Republic is currently doing. At the time of the Russian invasion on February 24th, 2022, they had several years’ worth of stored fuel in nuclear power plants, allowing time to change the supplier.”
