Population ageing could reduce Poland’s tax revenue as a share of GDP by about 2 percentage points by 2060, according to an OECD simulation. That is twice the average decline across the 30 countries studied, as the share of working-age people who currently pay most taxes and social security contributions shrinks.
South Korea faces the largest simulated fall, at more than 4 percentage points. In Central Europe, Slovakia and Czechia are among the countries facing steeper declines than Poland.
The effects are smaller in Europe’s largest economies: around 0.7 percentage points in Germany, roughly 1 percentage point in Spain and about 0.4 percentage points in Italy. France records a small increase in the simulation. These country estimates are approximate readings from the chart published by the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD).
How Poland compares with 29 other OECD countries
The chart below presents approximate results for all 30 countries in the study, with Poland highlighted. Negative values show a fall in the tax-to-GDP ratio and positive values an increase.
Percentage points of GDP; approximate values. Negative values indicate a decline.
Source: OECD, The Impact of Population Ageing on Tax Revenues in OECD Countries (2026), Figure 9, p. 30. Approximate readings from the chart, rounded to 0.1 percentage point. Editorial adaptation based on OECD (CC BY 4.0).
View data for all 30 OECD countries (2022–2060)
| Country | Change (percentage points of GDP) |
|---|---|
| South Korea | -4.4 |
| Slovakia | -3.2 |
| Estonia | -2.4 |
| Latvia | -2.3 |
| Slovenia | -2.3 |
| Greece | -2.3 |
| Hungary | -2.3 |
| Czechia | -2.2 |
| Japan | -2.2 |
| Austria | -2.2 |
| Poland | -2.0 |
| Lithuania | -1.4 |
| Spain | -1.1 |
| Belgium | -1.0 |
| Germany | -0.7 |
| Costa Rica | -0.6 |
| Italy | -0.4 |
| Denmark | -0.3 |
| Australia | -0.1 |
| Sweden | -0.1 |
| Mexico | +0.1 |
| Portugal | +0.2 |
| Finland | +0.3 |
| France | +0.3 |
| United States | +0.4 |
| Türkiye | +0.5 |
| United Kingdom | +0.7 |
| Ireland | +0.8 |
| New Zealand | +0.9 |
| Luxembourg | +1.2 |
Approximate readings from OECD Figure 9, rather than exact figures from a statistical table.
Why Germany and France face smaller revenue pressures
The pace of population ageing is only part of the explanation. Countries that also collect relatively substantial tax revenue from pensioners are less exposed to a shrinking workforce.
In Germany and Spain, tax receipts can grow faster than the economy. In France, taxes on pensions and capital income play an important role. Wealth passed on by older generations could also become more significant in Italy, Germany and France, although that would not automatically translate into higher receipts: allowances and exemptions matter.
Portugal and Luxembourg are among the economies where the simulation produces an increase in tax revenue relative to GDP. The OECD links this partly to the relatively high taxes paid by older people.
People aged 35–60 generate half of tax revenue
Middle-aged people contribute the most tax. Across the countries studied, residents aged 35–60 account for about half of tax revenue, while the working-age population as a whole generates roughly three-quarters. Revenue per person peaks in the 50–54 age group and then gradually declines.
The share of people aged 20–64 in the population of the countries studied is projected to fall, on average, from 57% in 2022 to 53% in 2060. The OECD expects particularly rapid demographic change in South Korea, Slovakia and Lithuania.
For Poland, this means fewer taxpayers in the age groups that currently contribute most to public finances. The number of pensioners will rise, but pensions are usually lower than previous earnings and often benefit from tax relief.
Income tax and social contributions are most exposed
A smaller workforce makes it harder to sustain personal income tax and social security contribution receipts. Countries that finance current benefits primarily from workers’ earnings are particularly exposed.
The OECD cites Spain as a country that has introduced reforms to increase contribution revenue. The estimates quoted in the study suggest these measures could raise additional receipts equivalent to about 0.6% of GDP in 2030 and 0.9% in 2050.
Value-added tax (VAT) could prove a more stable revenue source than taxes on labour. Across the countries studied, average consumption spending per person is highest between the ages of 60 and 70. Purchases are not all taxed in the same way, however, so reduced rates and exemptions also affect receipts.
Pension and healthcare spending are also set to rise
Ageing also increases pressure on public spending. In earlier analyses cited by the OECD, pension expenditure in the median member country rises by about 1.5 percentage points of GDP by 2060, with healthcare and long-term care adding a further 2.1 percentage points.
Longer working lives, supported by retraining and better employment conditions for older workers, are one possible way to limit the effects. Productivity, automation and the way benefits are financed also matter. For Poland, the analysis points to the importance of workforce size and the taxation of different income sources, alongside economic growth.
Source: Michaël Sicsic and Diana Hourani, The Impact of Population Ageing on Tax Revenues in OECD Countries, OECD Taxation Working Papers No. 75 (2026).
By Adam Ujazdowski. Polish original published on 8 November 2026 at 16:18 UTC. English adaptation published on 8 November 2026.
