May data from the secondary housing market brought a historic shift. The Tricity, with an average price of PLN 16,867 per square metre, has overtaken Kraków and become the second most expensive housing market in Poland. And this is not the only surprise: although buyer interest is clearly weakening, prices of second-hand apartments continue to rise. The structure of supply itself is also affecting prices. A second-hand apartment today no longer means only a large-panel block or an old building. Nearly 15% of listings on Otodom concern properties completed after 2020.
Key Findings
Demand fell by 5% month on month. In May, interest in second-hand apartments, measured by the number of enquiries on the Otodom platform, declined, but this did not stop further price increases.
Prices rose by 8.2% year on year. The Tricity is the fastest-appreciating housing market in Poland, which allowed it to overtake Kraków in terms of price.
Enquiries fell by 20% year on year in Białystok. Demand in cities in eastern and southern Poland has collapsed sharply. Double-digit declines in Białystok and Kielce represent a correction that goes beyond ordinary seasonality.
“The secondary market is sending a signal that cannot be ignored. Apartments are becoming more expensive, even though the number of interested buyers is falling. The mechanism is simple. Shrinking supply reduces pressure on sellers, who simply do not have to make concessions or lower prices,” notes Paweł Jarząbek, Market Research and Analysis Manager at Otodom.
The Otodom expert admits, however, that the real surprise is what is happening in the Tricity.
“The Tricity market has overtaken Kraków in terms of prices and has become the absolute leader in growth dynamics, with prices rising by 1.9% month on month and as much as 8.2% year on year. Poznań is also continuing its multi-month trend of above-average growth, with prices up 5.1% year on year. It is worth noting, however, that prices there remain more than PLN 4,400 per square metre lower than in the Tricity,” adds Paweł Jarząbek.
Top Three Most Expensive Markets
Warsaw: PLN 18,738 per square metre
Tricity: PLN 16,867 per square metre
Kraków: PLN 16,785 per square metre
How Much Does a Second-Hand Apartment Cost?
Among Poland’s seven largest cities, only Łódź and Katowice still have average asking prices on the secondary market, based on Otodom listings, below PLN 10,000 per square metre. Warsaw remains the most expensive market, at PLN 18,738 per square metre. The Tricity and Kraków are now moving ever closer to the psychological threshold of PLN 17,000 per square metre. Poznań and Wrocław occupy the middle of the ranking, with average prices of PLN 12,398 and PLN 13,575 per square metre, respectively.
Behind the rising prices, however, there may be a serious problem affecting both sides of transactions. As Paweł Jarząbek points out, the most important trend to watch in the coming months will be the widening gap between shrinking demand and rising prices.
“If buyer interest does not return to March levels and the number of offers continues to decline, the market may enter a phase of low liquidity. A scenario in which prices rise only nominally will hit both buyers and sellers. The coming months, which are traditionally weaker due to seasonality, will be the ultimate test. June and July will show whether we are dealing only with a temporary cooling or a more lasting shift in sentiment,” explains the Market Research and Analysis Manager at Otodom.
Why Does a Second-Hand Apartment Cost Almost as Much as a New One?
Although the secondary market is described as “used,” it is in fact undergoing a structural transformation. Today, it is increasingly less often associated with an apartment in a communist-era block or a pre-war tenement building. Nearly 15% of offers on Otodom consist of modern properties completed after 2020. Buyers are therefore paying for a standard comparable to the primary market, while gaining a major advantage: a property ready for immediate occupation.
The May price comparison illustrates this trend clearly. In Kraków, the average asking price of a new-build apartment is PLN 16,878 per square metre, while on the secondary market, according to Otodom’s listing database, the average price is as much as PLN 16,785 per square metre. The difference is almost symbolic. A similar level can be seen in the Tricity, where a new apartment costs an average of PLN 17,635 per square metre, while a second-hand apartment listed on Otodom costs PLN 16,867 per square metre.
Demand Is Weakening, and Poland’s Market Map Is Splitting in Two
The May data ultimately confirmed that the spring surge in buyer activity seen in March was only temporary. The secondary market quickly returned to the levels seen at the beginning of the year. Demand fell by 5% month on month. This means that across the 13 cities monitored by Otodom, total activity among people looking for apartments amounted to 103,177 enquiries.
However, the balance of forces on Poland’s housing map is extremely uneven. Warsaw, Wrocław and Poznań remain markets with very strong demand, both in absolute terms and year on year. The capital also dominates structurally, accounting for more than 37% of all enquiries in the 13 analysed cities, while its 8% year-on-year increase suggests real and lasting demand, not merely an effect of the listings base.
“Coastal markets are among the positive surprises. Szczecin and the rapidly appreciating Tricity were the only centres in Poland to record a monthly increase in interest in May. The mood is completely different in the south and east of the country, where a clear breakdown is visible. Cities such as Białystok, down 20% year on year, and Kielce, down 12% year on year, are recording deep double-digit declines in interest. In these markets, the demand correction is already structural and goes well beyond ordinary seasonality,” concludes Paweł Jarząbek.
Cities with the Lowest Month-on-Month Demand
Białystok: 1,791 enquiries, down 19.1% month on month
Kielce: 1,355 enquiries, down 15.6% month on month
Bydgoszcz: 3,266 enquiries, down 10.1% month on month
Source: CEO.com.pl
