The US Department of Agriculture has cut its combined forecast for Ukraine’s wheat and corn exports in 2026/27 by 3 million tonnes as Russian attacks on ports and transport routes disrupt shipments. More grain is expected to remain in the country, leaving farmers waiting longer for sales revenue.
In its 10 November report, the US Department of Agriculture (USDA) lowered projected corn exports from 22 million to 20 million tonnes and wheat exports from 12.5 million to 11.5 million tonnes. It left its corn harvest forecast unchanged at 31.8 million tonnes and raised its wheat harvest estimate by 500,000 tonnes to 26.5 million tonnes.
Weaker exports mean larger stockpiles. USDA’s November forecast puts Ukraine’s end-of-season corn stocks at 7.53 million tonnes and wheat stocks at 7.3 million tonnes, up from October estimates of 5.53 million and 6.1 million tonnes respectively.
Black Sea ports’ share falls from 90% to 10%
As recently as June, Ukraine’s Black Sea ports handled about 90% of its exports of grain, oilseeds and their processed products. By September, that share had fallen to around 10%. According to the European Commission, the remainder moved through the EU’s Solidarity Lanes, which include rail, road and inland waterway routes.
The growing reliance on alternative routes coincided with a decline in export volumes. Ukraine’s agriculture ministry said the country shipped only about a third of its potential agricultural export volume in August. In an analysis published by the Center for European Policy Analysis (CEPA) on 26 October, Olya Korbut noted that these alternative routes carry less cargo and cost more than sea transport.
Full stores delay funding for the next season
Ukraine’s grain stores were already almost full in October, leaving little room for late harvests, according to Korbut. Some grain can be held temporarily in plastic storage bags. Delaying sales, however, also delays the cash farmers need to prepare for the next season.
Turkish contracts and processing within Ukraine
Korbut points to the possibility of multi-year agreements with Turkish companies that would buy grain and arrange its transport, processing and onward sale. Such contracts would not remove transport risks: Russian attacks have already hit ships owned by companies registered in Turkey.
A second proposal involves investing in smaller processing plants and storage facilities across different regions of Ukraine. Processing and packaging grain locally could keep more of the sales value in the country, while some finished products could be shipped in containers by rail or truck. Establishing such a network would require funding for plant equipment, regional storage facilities and staff training.
