By Adam Ujazdowski. Polish original published on 8 November 2026 at 12:09 UTC. English edition published on 8 November 2026.
Food commodity prices are forecast to rise by about 18% in total over 2026 and 2027, according to the World Bank. Higher fuel and fertiliser costs are adding to production pressures, while disrupted grain shipments and a strong El Niño threaten supplies. Food prices are expected to keep rising next year even as energy prices fall.
The October Commodity Markets Outlook forecasts a 10.3% increase in its food price index in 2026 and a further 7.2% in 2027. Energy commodities are expected to rise by 32% this year before falling by 11.5% next year. These forecasts concern annual average international market prices in US dollars, rather than retail food prices.
Lower energy prices would not reverse the rise in food costs
The World Bank identifies several overlapping pressures. Conflict in the Middle East is restricting fuel supplies, fighting between Russia and Ukraine is disrupting grain and oilseed exports through the Black Sea, and El Niño is increasing the risk of drought, floods and extreme heat. Higher production costs therefore coincide with threats to harvests themselves.
The fertiliser price index is forecast to rise by 14.3% in 2026. A projected decline of 12.4% in 2027 would take it back close to its 2025 level. That improvement would still be insufficient to reverse the expected rise in food commodity prices.
Forecast annual change in average prices, %
Forecasts for 2026 and 2027. Metals and minerals exclude precious metals.
Source: World Bank, Commodity Markets Outlook, October 2026. Table 1.
Wheat and rice face a second year of price increases
US hard red winter wheat, known as HRW, is forecast to rise from an average of $243 a tonne in 2025 to $311 in 2026 and $353 in 2027. The corresponding forecasts for Thai rice with 5% broken grains are $408, $448 and $500 a tonne. Maize is expected to average $235 a tonne next year, up from $223 this year.
Further increases are also forecast for ingredients used in food processing and animal feed. Soybean oil prices are expected to rise by 11.4% in 2027 and soybean meal by 9.5%. Food processors and feed producers would therefore face further raw-material cost increases even if fuel markets gradually improve.
Forecast annual change in average prices in 2027, %
International commodity prices in US dollars; selected grades and reference markets.
Source: World Bank, Commodity Markets Outlook, October 2026. Table 1.
Oil prices are expected to fall, but inventories are shrinking
The baseline forecast puts average Brent crude prices at $91 a barrel in 2026 and $79 in 2027, compared with $69 in 2025. Next year’s projected decline assumes no major escalation of the Middle East conflict and a gradual improvement in supply.
Oil markets nevertheless enter that period with depleted inventories. The global stocks covered by the report fell by an average of about 2.4 million barrels a day from March to September. Inventory drawdowns bridged the gap between production and consumption, while reducing the buffer against further supply interruptions.
Annual average Brent price, US dollars per barrel
$105 is a risk scenario, not the baseline forecast.
Source: World Bank, Commodity Markets Outlook, October 2026. Table 1 and scenario on pp. 8–9.
In the adverse scenario, renewed restrictions on supplies from the Persian Gulf and continuing problems with Russian exports lift average Brent prices to $105 a barrel in 2027. That is about 33% above the baseline. If higher energy costs coincide with larger harvest losses and further disruption to grain trade, food commodity prices could exceed their 2022 levels.
Industrial commodity forecasts have also been revised up
Forecast price declines in some markets in 2027 do not imply a return to earlier expectations. The October forecast for next year’s energy price level is about 14% above the April projection. The food price forecast has been revised upwards by a similar amount.
October forecast relative to April forecast, %
Revisions to forecast price levels for 2027, not year-on-year price changes.
Source: World Bank, Commodity Markets Outlook, October 2026. Calculated from Table 1 indices.
The metals and minerals index, excluding precious metals, is expected to rise by 24.5% in 2026 before falling by 3.3% in 2027. The World Bank attributes elevated prices partly to demand from renewable energy, electric vehicles and data centres, alongside supply constraints. Copper is forecast to average $13,200 a tonne this year and $13,000 next year.
The report uses information available through 14 October 2026. Weaker-than-expected economic growth or a lasting Middle East agreement could lower prices, particularly for energy and metals. Further supply disruptions and greater agricultural losses would push them above the current forecasts.
Source: World Bank, Commodity Markets Outlook, October 2026. Charts adapted from the report’s data. Licence: CC BY 3.0 IGO. The World Bank does not endorse this interpretation.
