Global food prices fell 1.2% in October as cheaper cereals outweighed another rise in sugar. The UN Food and Agriculture Organization’s Food Price Index dropped to 133.9 points, still 5.9% above a year earlier. Sugar prices rose 6.6% over the month and 28.8% year on year, while the cereals index fell 4.5%.
In its report released on 6 November, FAO revised September’s reading to 135.6 points. October’s decline brought the overall index back to its August level. Meat and dairy prices also fell, by 1.2% and 1.1% respectively, while the vegetable oils index rose 0.3%.
Chart data
| Month, 2026 | Index (points) |
|---|---|
| Jan | 124.1 |
| Feb | 125.5 |
| Mar | 128.7 |
| Apr | 131.0 |
| May | 131.0 |
| Jun | 130.1 |
| Jul | 131.7 |
| Aug | 133.9 |
| Sep | 135.6 |
| Oct | 133.9 |
Wheat and maize pull cereal prices lower
The cereals index fell to 116.8 points, with wheat prices declining after four consecutive monthly increases. FAO attributed the fall to weaker international demand and improved harvest prospects, particularly in Argentina. Expectations that some restrictions on Black Sea exports would ease also weighed on prices, although transport disruptions continued to limit the decline.
Maize prices fell after reaching a three-year high in September. Supplies from the current US harvest pushed prices lower, while markets also anticipated ample grain availability from major South American exporters. Barley and sorghum prices declined too. Rice prices, however, rose 1.6% over the month, partly because of harvest delays in some exporting countries.
Rain disrupts Brazil’s sugar harvest and processing
The sugar price index rose to 121.3 points, its fourth consecutive increase and its highest level since December 2024. FAO said rainfall in south-central Brazil was the main driver of October’s rise. The wet weather disrupted both sugarcane harvesting and processing at mills.
Supply expectations also supported prices. In India, a weaker and uneven monsoon raised concerns about sugar output. For the European Union and Thailand, FAO pointed to forecasts of lower production in the 2026/27 season.
Chart data
| Group | Monthly change |
|---|---|
| Cereals | −4.5% |
| Meat | −1.2% |
| Dairy products | −1.1% |
| Vegetable oils | +0.3% |
| Sugar | +6.6% |
Butter and cheese fall as soybean and sunflower oils rise
Lower butter and cheese prices were the main reason for the decline in the dairy index. Ample supply and weaker buying, particularly in the EU, outweighed higher milk powder prices. Pork was among the meats that became cheaper, with abundant EU supply and limited export opportunities weighing on prices. The small rise in the vegetable oils index reflected higher soybean and sunflower oil prices, which more than offset cheaper rapeseed oil.
Polish sugar prices fall while wheat procurement prices rise
Retail prices of cane or beet sugar in Poland fell 17.7% year on year in September, while cereal flour prices dropped 3.1%. The October flash estimate from Statistics Poland, known locally as GUS, showed overall food and non-alcoholic drink prices down 0.1% from a year earlier and up 0.3% from September. September’s sugar reading and October’s broader food reading cover different periods and different baskets of purchases.
Poland’s domestic grain market also differed from the global picture. Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Development figures cited by the National Support Centre for Agriculture, or KOWR, showed average milling wheat procurement prices of PLN 968 per tonne, excluding VAT, in the week of 19–25 October. That was 5% above the level a month earlier. Dry maize cost PLN 969 per tonne, excluding VAT, down 0.4% over the month.
For sugar, KOWR recorded lower selling prices in the 2025/26 marketing year than in earlier periods. Preliminary data covering the period through June put domestic production at about 2.576 million tonnes. Output in the previous marketing year was 2.579 million tonnes.
Commodity prices and supermarket prices move at different speeds
FAO tracks monthly changes in internationally traded agricultural and food commodity prices. Its index combines five product groups, weighted by their average export shares in 2014–2016. The same period forms the index base of 100 points. Statistics Poland measures prices paid by Polish consumers, using a different basket of products at a different stage of the supply chain.
Lower grain prices may reduce the cost of new purchases by flour and animal-feed mills, while more expensive sugar may raise raw-material costs for confectionery and drinks manufacturers. The size and timing of any change depend on contracts, inventories and prices available from domestic suppliers. Retail prices also reflect processing, energy, packaging and transport costs, as well as margins and supermarket promotions. A 28.8% rise in the global sugar index therefore provides no basis for predicting an equivalent increase in Polish shops.
Data sources: FAO; Statistics Poland; the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Development’s Integrated Agricultural Market Information System (ZSRIR); and KOWR. FAO data released on 6 November 2026.
By Adam Ujazdowski. Polish original published on 6 November 2026. English edition prepared on 6 November 2026.
