Two weeks have passed since Hungary’s parliamentary elections, which ended Viktor Orbán’s 16-year rule. The opposition TISZA party not only won the vote but, after the final count, retained a strong mandate to govern. For financial markets, this was a signal that political change could translate into a genuine economic shift. The most visible reaction came in the currency market. The forint has held on to much of its post-election gains, while investors have begun to reduce the risk premium previously attached to Hungary. Sentiment has also improved around Hungarian bonds and companies listed in Budapest.
“Markets are no longer reacting only to the election result itself, but to expectations of concrete action: improved relations with the European Union, capital inflows and greater economic predictability. This is a classic example of how politics affects currency valuation and the cost of state financing. Two weeks after the election, however, investors are beginning to expect not declarations, but the first decisions from Péter Magyar’s government,” said Jacek Jurczyński, CEO of Akcenta CZ.
Brussels at the centre of investors’ attention
Relations between Hungary and the EU remain the most important issue after the election. Investors assume that the new government will seek to quickly unblock EU funds that had previously been frozen due to institutional disputes. Billions of euros are still at stake, and these funds could provide a significant boost to investment and economic growth. Talks between the new prime minister, Péter Magyar, and representatives of the European Commission are providing an additional impulse for the market. For investors, this is the first test of the new cabinet’s effectiveness and a signal of whether political change will indeed translate into better financial conditions for the country.
“Unlocking EU funds would mean lower borrowing needs for the state, a stronger investment impulse and greater financial stability for the entire Central and Eastern European region. In practice, markets have started to view Hungary not as a source of political risk within the EU, but as a potential economic rebound market,” Jurczyński said.
Hungary returns to the competition for capital
There are growing signals that foreign investors are now looking at Hungary not only through the lens of labour costs or tax incentives, but above all through regulatory stability, predictability of economic decisions and the quality of the business environment. This is an important shift for the entire Central and Eastern European region.
If the new government succeeds in improving relations with Brussels and triggering an inflow of EU funds, Hungary could quickly return to the competition for new industrial projects, logistics centres and manufacturing investments. This would mean stronger competition for capital in the region, including for Poland.
“Recent years have shown that investors are increasingly less likely to choose locations based solely on the lowest operating costs. Predictable regulations, a stable currency and the ability to plan financial flows are now just as important. If Hungary restores its economic credibility, it may quickly become one of the region’s more active markets,” the CEO of Akcenta CZ noted.
A new balance of power in the region. What does it mean for Poland?
The change in Hungary may also matter for Poland. In recent years, Warsaw and Budapest often found themselves on the same side of European disputes. A new opening in Budapest could weaken the old political arrangement and shift the region’s centre of gravity towards more pragmatic economic cooperation with Brussels.
Another important signal is Péter Magyar’s announcement that he wants his first official foreign visit as prime minister to be to Warsaw. This may indicate an attempt to build a new format for Polish-Hungarian relations, based more on the economy, trade and investment than on previous political symbolism.
“Investors are increasingly looking at the region as a whole. If Hungary returns to the game, Poland may also benefit from an improved perception of Central Europe. At the same time, competition for capital is increasing, especially in the manufacturing and logistics sectors. For Poland, this represents both an opportunity and a challenge,” said the CEO of Akcenta CZ.
What next for the forint, the zloty and companies?
After the forint’s strong move, a short-term correction is possible, but the medium-term direction will depend on the first decisions of the new government. The market will be watching the pace of talks with Brussels, the composition of the cabinet and signals regarding fiscal policy and interest rates. For Polish companies trading with Hungary or more broadly within the region, this means one thing: greater exchange-rate volatility in the coming months. This applies not only to the forint, but indirectly also to the zloty and the Czech koruna.
“Two weeks after the election, we can see that political change can quickly translate into exchange rates. For companies, this is a reminder that currency risk is not a theoretical issue, but a real factor affecting margins and financial planning. In moments like these, managing currency exposure becomes particularly important,” Jurczyński concluded.
The region returns to investors’ radar
Experts at Akcenta CZ point out that investors are increasingly looking at Poland, the Czech Republic, Hungary and Romania as a single Central and Eastern European regional basket. If political risk in Hungary continues to decline, other regional currencies may also benefit, including the zloty and the Czech koruna. According to Akcenta CZ experts, the most likely scenario is a gradual strengthening of Hungary’s position in the region, while elevated currency volatility persists. If the new government quickly improves relations with the EU, Budapest could become one of Central Europe’s more interesting markets in the second half of 2026.
