May brought a clear rebound in Poland’s construction sector. Construction and assembly output rose by 3.9% year on year and 7.9% from April, but the industry remains in negative territory for the year to date. The divide within the market is also becoming more visible: new investment projects are gaining momentum, while renovation work is experiencing a steep decline.
Construction rebounds in May, but remains in negative territory since the start of the year. Investment rises while renovations collapse
Construction and assembly output in May 2026 was 3.9% higher year on year and 7.9% higher than in April. However, the monthly rebound does not reverse the weak start to the year: cumulatively since January, the sector remains 5.1% below last year’s level, with a deep divide emerging between rising investment activity and shrinking renovation work.
The latest data from Statistics Poland show construction at a turning point. After weak results in the first months of the year, May brought a clear rebound: output in constant prices increased by 3.9% year on year and by 4.8% after seasonal adjustment. This is the first such distinct signal of improvement in 2026, although the scale of the earlier slowdown means that the five-month balance remains negative.
After seasonal adjustment, output reached an index of 107.8 in May (2021 = 100), recovering from the decline at the beginning of the year, when it fell to 98.7 in January. However, the trend line remains flat. For more than a year, the sector has moved within a narrow range around its 2021 level, without a clear growth impulse.
Construction segments: specialist works drive growth
On an annual basis, May’s increase was driven by companies carrying out specialised construction activities, where output rose by 10.8%, and by businesses involved in building construction, up 5.8%. Civil engineering remained in negative territory, declining by 1.8%. This segment includes roads, bridges and networks, making it particularly dependent on the cycle of public investment.
Compared with April, the picture was uniformly positive. Output increased across all three segments, most strongly in civil engineering, where it rose by 10.7%. This suggests that this part of the market is also beginning to gain momentum after a weaker period.
Comparing the monthly result with the cumulative figures reveals the scale of the weak start to the year. Despite May’s gains, all three segments have remained below last year’s levels since January: specialised construction activities by 5.6%, building construction by 5.2%, and civil engineering by 4.5%. The May rebound is therefore real, but it is only beginning to offset the losses recorded in the first quarter.
| Segment | m/m (April = 100) | y/y (May 2025 = 100) | Jan–May y/y |
|---|---|---|---|
| CONSTRUCTION total | 107.9 | 103.9 | 94.9 |
| Building construction | 105.7 | 105.8 | 94.8 |
| Civil engineering | 110.7 | 98.2 | 95.5 |
| Specialised construction activities | 106.6 | 110.8 | 94.4 |
The core of the reading: investment rises, renovations collapse
The most important signal in May’s data is not found in the breakdown by construction segment, but in the nature of the work being carried out. Investment-related works increased by 15.9% year on year, while renovation works collapsed by 23.1%. This divergence, one of the deepest in recent years, points to a construction economy shifting away from maintaining existing infrastructure towards delivering new projects.
The divergence is even more pronounced in cumulative terms. From January to May, output in renovation works fell by 27.6% year on year, while investment-related works increased by 4.9%. A year earlier, renovation works had declined by 10.1%, while investment activity had risen by 6.4%, showing that the downturn in the renovation segment has deepened markedly.
This pattern is consistent with a phase of the cycle in which large investment projects are being launched, including those co-financed by EU funds, at the expense of modernisation and renovation works. These activities are more sensitive to financing costs and the caution of private investors. For contractors, it means that demand is shifting towards building and infrastructure projects.
Conclusion for the sector: the May rebound is real, but selective. New investment projects and specialised construction activities are driving growth, while the renovation segment is undergoing a deep correction. This is a two-speed market, where the direction of demand matters just as much as its scale.
What this means
Key takeaways
- May reversed the trend, but the year remains negative. Growth of 3.9% year on year and 7.9% month on month is the strongest sign of improvement in 2026 so far, but cumulatively the sector remains 5.1% below last year’s level.
- Investment is driving growth, while renovations are holding it back. Investment-related works rose by 15.9% year on year, while renovation works fell by 23.1% — the deepest divergence shaping the entire sector.
- Specialised construction activities are leading the recovery. Growth of 10.8% year on year indicates that specialised contractors are benefiting most quickly from the investment rebound.
- Civil engineering rebounds on a monthly basis. Despite negative annual growth of −1.8%, the roads and networks segment increased by 10.7% compared with April, potentially marking the beginning of a turnaround in public infrastructure.
- The underlying trend remains flat. The seasonally adjusted index of 107.8 has hovered around the same level for more than a year, meaning the sector has not yet entered a phase of sustained expansion.
The coming months will be crucial for assessing the condition of the construction sector. They will show whether the May rebound marked the beginning of a lasting reversal of the negative trend seen at the start of the year, or whether it was merely a seasonal increase. Much will depend on the pace at which public investment projects are launched and on whether the renovation segment can halt its steep declines.
Preliminary data for May 2026. The figures cover enterprises employing more than nine people whose predominant activity is classified under Section F “Construction” of NACE Rev. 2 / PKD 2007. Source: Statistics Poland, “Construction and assembly production in May 2026”, Statistical Office in Lublin. Own analysis based on Statistics Poland data.
