China had an estimated 210,000 tonnes of annual neodymium magnet production capacity in 2025, compared with about 4,500 tonnes in the United States, according to the International Energy Agency. Despite billions of dollars in federal support for the US critical-minerals industry, many projects will not begin production until late in the decade, limiting Washington’s leverage in trade negotiations with Beijing.
China’s magnet capacity is almost 47 times larger
China’s plants had the capacity to produce around 210,000 tonnes of neodymium-iron-boron magnets, known as NdFeB magnets, each year, according to the IEA’s Global Critical Minerals Outlook 2025. US capacity was approximately 4,500 tonnes, making China’s total almost 47 times larger.
The figures describe estimated production capacity, not actual output or sales. The IEA chart is based on plant capacity and industrial projects and should not be confused with the mining of rare-earth elements.
NdFeB magnets are used in electric-vehicle motors, industrial robots, wind turbines and defence equipment. China’s advantage extends beyond magnet manufacturing to earlier stages in the processing of rare-earth elements.
Billions invested, but production remains years away
Many US critical-minerals projects backed by federal funding remain in planning or construction and are not expected to begin operating until 2028–2031, Reuters reported on 15 November.
One of the largest projects is a $7.4 billion smelting and refining complex planned by Korea Zinc in Tennessee. Full commissioning is scheduled for 2030. The facility is intended to process a range of industrial metals, but it is not a direct equivalent of an NdFeB magnet factory.
Trilogy Metals expects to begin copper production in Alaska in 2031. The Thacker Pass lithium mine in Nevada is scheduled to start production in 2028, while Perpetua Resources plans to begin mining antimony in Idaho in 2029. These are project timetable dates, not milestones that have already been reached.
The US is expanding domestic magnet production
Investment in domestic magnet manufacturing is the most direct US response to China’s dominance. MP Materials is expanding operations in Texas with support from the US Department of Defense, while other American suppliers are also building new capacity.
Opening a plant does not immediately make it possible to replace imports. Manufacturers must secure feedstock, achieve the required quality standards and complete qualification procedures with industrial customers.
Dependence on China constrains US negotiating leverage
China’s control over rare-earth processing and magnet manufacturing gives Beijing leverage in disputes over tariffs and export controls. Chinese restrictions covering selected raw materials and magnets have shown how quickly supply problems can affect US factories.
Reliance on Chinese supplies makes it harder for Washington to apply trade pressure before Donald Trump’s talks with Xi Jinping, according to Reuters’ analysis. US investment is intended to reduce that dependence gradually, but the largest projects still require several years of construction and commissioning.
The project schedules cited by Reuters put lithium production at Thacker Pass in 2028, antimony production in Idaho in 2029 and copper production at Trilogy Metals’ Alaska project in 2031.
Sources
- Reuters, Jarrett Renshaw and Ernest Scheyder, “Trump’s minerals push has yet to loosen China’s grip ahead of Xi talks”, 15 November 2026.
- International Energy Agency, Global Critical Minerals Outlook 2025, p. 171.
- International Energy Agency, Rare Earth Elements, 2026.
Original editorial preparation: ManagerPlus editorial team.
