Recent data filled us with cautious optimism on the Polish economy. Real sphere data are on the mend. We link it to consumer behavior (low interest rates and incentives to spend), somewhat looser attitude of the government towards expenditures, and some symptoms of a turnaround in the euro zone economy. We think that upswing is coming and that the market consensus – as usual – has a tendency to err on the side of caution near the trough. With the real sphere improving and base effects on inflation ebbing we see a steeper CPI growth path. The momentum of data is likely to support rate hike expectations for 2014.
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