Business Confidence Rises Across Most Sectors in Poland

Statistics Poland data: business tendency survey, July 2026. Published: 22 July 2026 (not seasonally adjusted unless otherwise stated).

Sentiment among Polish businesses improved in July 2026 in virtually all sectors surveyed by Statistics Poland compared with June. The strongest improvement in business conditions was recorded in finance and insurance and in retail trade — the latter moved from a negative indicator (-1.6) to a clearly positive reading (+1.4) in a single month. Manufacturing continues to report the most pessimistic assessments, with the general business climate indicator remaining negative (-5.3) and clearly below its long-term average.

Which sectors are the most and least optimistic

The general business climate indicator is a composite measure combining companies’ assessment of their current situation (the diagnostic component) with expectations for the coming months (the forecast component). A positive value means that more companies report an improvement than a deterioration in their situation. In July 2026, the gap between sectors remained substantial — from -5.3 in manufacturing to +27.4 in finance and insurance.

An interesting signal is that only two sectors recorded an indicator below their own long-term average: manufacturing (-5.3 compared with an average of 0.4) and — somewhat surprisingly — information and communication (9.9 compared with an average as high as 17.1). Although the latter remains positive and has historically been one of the most consistently optimistic sectors of the Polish economy, it is currently performing below its usual level. By contrast, accommodation and food service activities (+21.2 against an average of -0.3) and retail trade (+1.4 against an average of -4.0) are recording results well above their historical norms.

Manufacturing: gradual improvement, but still below the norm

The general business climate indicator in manufacturing stood at -5.3 in July, an improvement from -6.0 in June, but it has remained in negative territory continuously since 2022. The current recovery is more moderate than the deep declines recorded at the height of the energy crisis, when the indicator fell below -20 points in late 2022. Nevertheless, the sector has still not moved close to its long-term average.

Finance and retail trade lead the improvement

Finance and insurance remains the clear leader in business sentiment (+27.4), driven primarily by a very high diagnostic component (+48.7) — an assessment of companies’ current situation rather than expectations alone. Retail trade recorded the strongest monthly change among all sectors, moving from -1.6 in June to +1.4 in July, an increase of 3.0 points in a single month.

Supplementary questions: the war in Ukraine and price trends

Statistics Poland regularly includes voluntary supplementary questions in its business tendency survey. In July, they concerned the effects of the war in Ukraine and price expectations. A clear majority of companies in every sector — ranging from 88.3% in accommodation and food service activities to 94.6% in retail trade — reported no adverse effects or only minor adverse effects of the war on their current operations. The proportion of companies reporting serious effects or a threat to business stability was highest in accommodation and food service activities (11.7%) and transportation and storage (9.8%), and lowest in retail trade (5.4%).

Among the effects observed, rising costs were the most common, cited by between 54.2% of companies in manufacturing and wholesale trade and as many as 71.4% of construction companies and 67.6% of accommodation and food service businesses. Supply-chain disruptions were felt most strongly in manufacturing (36.3% of responses), while the termination of contracts with eastern counterparties was also reported most often by manufacturing companies (13.7%) and wholesale businesses (13.0%). Regarding the employment of workers from Ukraine, a clear majority of companies (85–97%) reported no change. However, accommodation and food service activities stand out, as the inflow of workers from Ukraine (11.5%) clearly exceeded the outflow (4.6%). This was the only such case among the surveyed sectors and may reflect a structural labour shortage in the industry.

Prices: slower growth expected, not deflation

In the short term (one to three months), a clear majority of companies in every sector expect the prices of materials and services to continue rising, but more slowly than before (42.8–53.2% of responses), or to stabilise (27.2–41.6%). The proportion expecting price growth to accelerate was considerably smaller (11.6–16.3%), as was the proportion expecting prices to fall (1.4–4.0%). The same pattern was evident over a 12-month horizon. Energy and fuel prices remained the main factor increasing companies’ operating costs, cited by between 77.8% of respondents in manufacturing and 88.3% in accommodation and food service activities. They ranked ahead of labour costs (61.9–74.3%) and rent and lease costs (26.6–61.6%, with the highest figure recorded in accommodation and food service activities).

Regarding financing conditions, including the cost and availability of credit, most companies in every sector had no opinion on how these conditions would affect investment decisions, production or employment over the next 12 months (69–83% of responses, depending on the question and sector). Among companies that did express an opinion, however, a cautious scenario prevailed: 18.0–26.0% said they would postpone investment decisions, compared with 1.5–6.5% planning to accelerate them, while 16.3–23.0% expected to reduce employment, compared with 3.0–13.0% planning to increase it. Accommodation and food service activities were the exception: the proportion planning to increase employment (13.0%) was closest to the proportion planning reductions (20.7%), representing the smallest imbalance among all sectors.

Source: Statistics Poland. Own analysis based on data from Statistics Poland.