Polish Weekly Review, 12 lipca 2013


After a rather uneventful week we are heading for several days of important macro releases. Their weight is based on two facts: 1) real sphere data (almost) complete the data set that can be used to pin down the GDP growth rate in Q2, 2) inflation data are set to announce the level at which the series turns around in the current cycle. We are rather optimistic on the real sphere (some sort of stabilization in the labor market, positive industrial output data, somewhat lesser falls in construction) and expect higher CPI inflation, which due to bumpy behavior of food prices is likely to be very close to the last month’s reading of 0.5% rather than 0.2% stipulated by our original estimate. The incoming mix is going to underpin expectations that the easing cycle is over. Therefore it is a idiosyncratic negative decoction for local bonds. And here are the specifics (we compare our forecasts to Bloomberg consensus that can be modified during the month and hence reflects the inflow of fresh information).

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