Q1 GDP growth came out at 0.4% y/y vs 0.7% in the previous quarter. It is a flash estimate, an ”experimental” reading (to quote the Central Statistical Office), so we think there is a scope for revision as soon as detailed data are published (May 29). Regardless of the final figure we think that higher frequency data imply that the trough in activity did not happen in Q4 but in Q1 instead. Moreover, we think it is now safe to say that Poland did not enter technical recession only because of… pure luck. Q1 is the fifth consecutive quarter with q/q growth below 0.5%.
