Retail sales grew by 0.5% y/y (consensus: +0.3%, our forecast: -1,2%). We have already noted in the previous month that incoming data will be closely monitored for signs of trend reversal (especially in durables). Another minus in our forecast was due to statistical effects (Easter-related shifts, working days, extended weekends). We dare to say that this is a solid release (to the extent that our interpretation of base and calendar effects is correct, they were likely beaten by a steepening trend) and retails sales has probably bottomed out. It is confirmed by core retail sales aggregates.
Autor/Źródło:
